The United States has proposed a 50% tariff on all containerized imports from Brazil. While not yet finalized, the policy has already prompted Brazil to call for urgent negotiations and consider countermeasures. In 2024 alone, more than $27 billion in Brazilian goods arrived at U.S. ports. If approved, the tariff could reshape sourcing decisions, strain long-standing trade relationships, and trigger retaliation that impacts both importers and exporters.

Using booking-level and arrival data from TradeView, this analysis examines how container volumes, trade values, port destinations, and product composition illustrate the current imbalance between the two countries. It also highlights the sectors and lanes most vulnerable if the tariff takes effect. Backed by Vizion's TradeView platform and Dun & Bradstreet Shipping Insights.

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Brazil Ships More, and Ships More Value

In 2024, Brazil exported 525,054 TEU to the United States, representing an estimated trade value of $27.7 billion. By comparison, U.S. exports to Brazil totaled just 342,588 TEU worth $10.3 billion. Despite ranking fifth in TEU volume among U.S. trading partners, Brazil surpasses countries like Italy and Thailand when measured by shipment value.

A $5.78 Billion Price Tag on the Table

To estimate the financial stakes, we analyzed average monthly TEU volume and value over the past year. If Brazil’s typical shipment pace continues into the second half of 2025, the proposed tariff would apply to roughly $11.56 billion in goods from August through December. A 50% levy would add an estimated $5.78 billion in additional import costs over just five months.

The outcome of the current negotiations will determine whether importers face this added burden or avoid it altogether. This isn’t the first time booking data has revealed early reactions to tariff shifts. In the weeks leading up to the new U.S.–Vietnam trade deal, bookings surged more than 40 percent as shippers rushed to beat the deadline. Read the full Vietnam trade analysis here.

Booking Volumes Show Early Signs of Cooling

Brazil-to-U.S. bookings outpaced 2024 levels for most of early 2025, with weeks 1 through 28 consistently trending higher. However, recent volumes have begun to flatten. Whether this shift reflects early pullbacks by shippers anticipating the tariff or normal mid-year seasonality remains unclear. As the August 1 enforcement date approaches, real-time booking data will be a leading indicator of how the market is responding.

Trade in Transition: Weekly TEUs from Brazil to U.S., 2024 vs 2025

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

Daily TEUs from Brazil to U.S., May 2025-Present

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see daily TEU volumes

U.S. Export Volume to Brazil Is Softening in 2025

The U.S. exported significantly fewer containers to Brazil in 2024, and that trend has worsened in 2025. In the first 28 weeks of this year, U.S.-to-Brazil TEU volume has dropped by 14% year over year, falling from an average of 6,843 TEU per week to just 5,909. While Brazil remains a key trade partner, its appetite for U.S. goods appears to be waning. This trend could complicate any retaliatory strategy, especially if Brazil is less reliant on U.S. exports.

Trade Imbalance Widening: Weekly U.S. Exports to Brazil Slide in 2025

Daily TEUs from U.S. to Brazil, May 2025-Present

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see daily TEU volumes

Brazilian Exports Are Heavy in Raw Materials

Looking at the mix of products Brazil ships to the U.S., natural resources dominate. Wood products alone account for 36% of containerized exports, followed by stone (10%), coffee (9%), meat (7%), and rubber (6%). These industries will be among the hardest hit if the tariff is approved. For importers relying on these materials, the options may include absorbing the cost, switching suppliers, or lobbying for exemptions.

What’s at Stake: Brazil’s Top Containerized Exports to the U.S

U.S. Exports to Brazil Rely Heavily on Plastics

The U.S. export mix to Brazil is highly concentrated. Plastics (HS 39) made up 64% of all containerized exports in 2024. The next largest categories — machinery (HS 84), organic chemicals (HS 29), and rubber (HS 40) — trail far behind. This reliance on a single export class could leave U.S. suppliers vulnerable if Brazil imposes retaliatory tariffs.

Outbound and Overexposed: U.S. Exports to Brazil Are Heavy on Plastics

Brazil’s Goods Flow Through a Handful of U.S. Ports

In 2024, most Brazilian imports arrived through a concentrated set of U.S. ports. New York (USNYC) handled 26% of the volume, followed by Houston (USHOU) at 21% and Philadelphia (USPHL) at 13%. These three ports alone received nearly 60% of Brazil’s containerized exports to the U.S. Port-level exposure could have real implications. If the proposed tariffs go into effect, downstream impacts could ripple across regional supply chains, labor forces, and infrastructure dependent on that flow of goods.

Where It All Lands: Top U.S. Ports Receiving Brazil’s Containerized Exports in 2024

Brazil Signals It Will Retaliate If Tariffs Go Ahead

While the tariff is not yet finalized, its potential impact is already becoming visible in the booking data. Brazil’s government has formally requested trade talks, but President Lula has made the country’s position clear: Brazil will match any U.S. tariff hike, 50% for 50%, under its new reciprocity law unless a diplomatic deal is reached. That sets the stage for a high-stakes standoff, one that could escalate quickly if neither side backs down.

For now, shippers should prepare for both scenarios: a tariff-enforced world that increases landed costs and disrupts supply chains, or a negotiated alternative that preserves the current flow of goods.

In either case, the numbers make one thing clear. Brazil–U.S. trade is entering a period of uncertainty, and the booking data is offering an early glimpse of what may come next. These shifting flows echo a broader trend we've observed globally — traditional shipping patterns are becoming harder to predict. Our recent analysis on peak season trends shows that black swan disruptions like tariffs are making the calendar less relevant. Explore the 10-year seasonality breakdown here.

Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence

Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:

1. Booking trends by country, product type, HS code, or commodity
2. Changes by country or port
3. Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider

Want a demo? Schedule time with our team to explore how TradeView helps you anticipate disruption and stay competitive.

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