Global container shipping has undergone a structural shift over the past decade, reshaping not only how goods move but when they move. What was once a reliably seasonal industry, marked by predictable summer and fall surges ahead of back-to-school and holiday cycles, has become increasingly erratic. This article examines 10 years of container booking data across three key lanes: global bookings, U.S. imports, and China-to-U.S. trade. The analysis reveals a clear pattern: the traditional “peak season” has eroded under the weight of black swan disruptions including COVID-19, U.S.–China tariffs, port congestion, equipment shortages, and geopolitical rerouting. In this new environment, shippers can no longer rely on the calendar. Instead, they must respond in real time to shifts in demand, capacity, and origin patterns.

"We asked a simple question: does peak season even still exist? The data told a much bigger story. Global shipping has fundamentally changed, and reactive planning is no longer enough." - Kyle Henderson, CEO + Co-Founder. This piece explores what has changed, why it matters, and how to plan for a future where seasonality may no longer apply.

‍Black Swan Events That Reshaped the Calendar

Over the past five years, a series of disruptive, unplanned shocks have fundamentally altered the structure and seasonality of global trade. These events did not just impact volume. They changed when, how, and from where cargo moves.

1. COVID-19 (2020–2021): Lockdowns in China caused bookings to collapse in early 2020, but volumes quickly rebounded as demand surged. The result was a drawn-out peak that extended through much of the year and set the stage for an even more extreme 2021.
2. U.S.–China Tariff War (2018–2020): Escalating tariffs led importers to front-load shipments, creating artificial spikes that obscured traditional cycles. Booking data from China-to-U.S. lanes shows irregular Q3–Q4 peaks disconnected from actual demand.
3. Chokepoint Disruptions (2021–2024): Events like the Suez Canal blockage, Red Sea attacks, and Panama Canal droughts introduced weeks of uncertainty and forced rerouting, decoupling booking behavior from production schedules.
4. Inventory Gluts and Retail Caution (2023–2024): After pandemic-era overordering, many retailers began 2023 with excess stock. Booking slowdowns during typical peak windows reflected inventory pullbacks and inflation-driven caution.

Each of these shocks contributed to a collapse in the regularity of peak season and a shift toward flatter, more event-driven booking behavior.

A Decade of Seasonality and Its Undoing (Global Bookings)

From 2015 through 2019, global container bookings followed a recognizable seasonal cycle. Weekly booking volumes rose steadily through the second quarter, peaking between Weeks 28 and 36, before tapering off toward the end of the year. This pattern reflected the rhythm of global supply chains, driven by manufacturing lead times in Asia, pre-holiday restocking cycles in Europe and North America, and synchronized demand from major retail markets.

In 2020, that rhythm fractured. Early in the year, bookings dipped sharply as COVID-19 lockdowns shuttered factories in China and halted global trade flows. By mid-year, however, demand rebounded and inventories were replenished, leading to a surge in bookings. Unlike pre-pandemic years where peaks were sharp and time-bound, 2020's elevated volume stretched from late Q2 through Q4, with weekly bookings exceeding 2 million TEUs for much of the second half.

In 2021, global bookings hit record highs. Volumes consistently surpassed 2.2 million TEUs per week from Week 19 through Week 40. The usual seasonal rise and fall was replaced by a prolonged, elevated plateau. Carriers added capacity, shippers advanced orders, and supply chains strained under continuous pressure. It was the last year global container flows followed a clear high-volume trajectory.

Since then, the shape of the curve has changed. Bookings declined in 2022 but retained some residual seasonal movement. By 2023 and 2024, however, seasonality had largely disappeared. Booking volumes flattened, staying mostly between 1.6 million and 1.9 million TEUs per week throughout the year. The once-clear peak period faded, replaced by a more evenly distributed demand - a trend that continues into 2025.

This flattening suggests a broader structural shift. Seasonal cycles once shaped the flow of goods. Now, disruption, inventory shifts, and sourcing diversification define it.

Global container bookings peaked in 2021 — and never found a new rhythm

Global furniture shipments (HS Code 94) show the most dramatic shift, with a sharp, sustained surge in late 2020 followed by an irregular, flattened trend in recent years — a clear sign of disrupted seasonality.

U.S. Import Bookings — From Predictable Peaks to a Flattened Flow

For years, U.S. import bookings followed a well-defined seasonal rhythm. Volumes typically rose through the spring and peaked between Weeks 30 and 36, tied to retail inventory cycles. From 2015 to 2019, this pattern was stable and reliable.

In 2020, that changed. As U.S. consumers shifted spending to goods and retailers raced to restock, bookings surged. The traditional Q3 spike was replaced by a sustained second-half elevation.

The peak came in 2021, when bookings exceeded 450,000 TEUs per week for much of Q2 and Q3. It was the last year with a dominant, calendar-driven surge. Since then, seasonal variation has faded. In 2023 and 2024, weekly volumes largely stayed between 250,000 and 350,000 TEUs, showing no distinct peak period.

Now in 2025, this flatter curve persists. U.S. import flows remain steady but unsynchronized with the retail calendar, reflecting a shift toward measured, event-responsive planning.

‍The U.S. peak season used to be predictable - now it’s barely visible 

U.S. imports of machinery (HS Code 84) peaked in late 2020 and early 2021 before experiencing sharp dips in 2023 and mid-2025, highlighting a shift toward more volatile, investment-driven demand cycles that no longer follow seasonal patterns.

U.S. imports of electrical equipment (HS Code 85) hit record highs in late 2020 but have since followed an uneven pattern of short-lived peaks and steep drop-offs, reflecting demand driven more by product launches and consumer cycles than by traditional seasonal timing.

U.S. imports of toys and sporting goods (HS Code 95) continue to follow a predictable seasonal pattern, with volumes reliably peaking in Q3 ahead of the holiday retail cycle.

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China-to-U.S. Bookings — From Seasonal Anchor to Structural Decline

China-to-U.S. trade was once the most reliable seasonal indicator in global shipping. From 2015 to 2019, volumes rose sharply in Q2 and Q3, peaking before Golden Week factory closures.

In 2020, this trend initially held, but COVID-19 disruptions soon warped the pattern. After early dips, bookings surged through late Q2 and Q3.

In 2021, volumes peaked at over 210,000 TEUs per week, with sustained highs from Week 20 through Week 40. It marked the last clearly defined peak in this corridor.

Since then, China-to-U.S. bookings have declined steadily. In 2022, seasonal spikes began to fade. By 2023 and 2024, weekly volumes rarely exceeded 150,000 TEUs. This pattern continues in 2025.

Several structural shifts explain the decline:

1. Sourcing diversification to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and India
2. Trade policy friction and tariff exposure
3. Carrier capacity reallocation to other lanes

Once a bellwether of peak season, China to U.S. Trade is now flat

Planning in a Post-Seasonal World

The last decade of container booking data shows that seasonality in shipping is no longer a given. Global trade patterns have decoupled from the calendar and become shaped by disruptions, sourcing shifts, and dynamic demand.

Global volumes remain strong but are less synchronized. U.S. imports no longer follow a consistent peak. China-to-U.S. trade has entered a sustained structural decline.

For shippers and logistics teams, the implication is clear: calendar-based planning is no longer enough. Success now depends on: Real-time visibility into trade lane activity, Forecasting tools based on current behavior, and the flexibility to respond to shifting conditions quickly. The era of the predictable peak season may be over. But with the right data, supply chains can still gain the precision and agility needed to thrive.

Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence

Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:

1. Booking trends by country, product type, HS code, or commodity
2. Changes by country or port
3. Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider

Want a demo? Schedule time with our team to explore how TradeView helps you anticipate disruption and stay competitive.

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