In recent weeks, a growing number of shipping and logistics headlines have converged on the same conclusion: that the pre–Chinese New Year (CNY) cargo rush has already passed, or worse, failed to materialize altogether.

Commentary from outlets including Drewry, FreightWaves, gCaptain, and others has pointed to falling spot rates, failed general rate increases (GRIs), and increased blank sailings as evidence of weak demand heading into 2026. Some have gone as far as to suggest that the traditional seasonal surge is already “exhausted.”

But when you look beyond spot pricing and focus on actual booking activity, the story looks very different.

“A lot of the headlines right now are saying the pre–Chinese New Year rush hasn’t materialized — but when you look at bookings instead of rates, the data actually tells a very different story.”
— Ben Tracy, VP of Strategic Business Development, Vizion

Using forward-looking booking data from Vizion’s TradeView platform, early 2026 activity points not to a missing surge, but to a delayed one, driven by calendar timing, capacity dynamics, and how seasonal signals are being interpreted.

Why the Headlines Are Telling a Different Story

In recent weeks, several industry publications have pointed to falling spot rates, failed general rate increases (GRIs), and rising blank sailings as evidence that the pre–Chinese New Year rush has already passed or failed to materialize altogether. Recent industry commentary, including Drewry’s World Container Index weekly update, has characterized spot rate declines and increased blank sailings as signs of demand waning ahead of Chinese New Year. 1UP Cargo recently reported that container shipping rates have “pulled back after an early-year spike,” attributing the softness to weak demand despite approaching factory shutdowns. Coverage syndicated on gCaptain likewise described the unraveling of January’s rate rally as evidence of deteriorating market fundamentals and weakening demand.

These indicators are useful for understanding carrier pricing pressure, but they are not direct measures of physical cargo demand.

“Pricing power struggles don’t automatically mean weak demand. In oversupplied markets, rates and volumes can move in opposite directions.”
— Kyle Henderson, CEO & Co-Founder, Vizion

TradeView tracks actual TEU bookings, capturing shipper intent across both contract and spot cargo. This provides a clearer view of real trade flows — particularly during seasonal transitions like Chinese New Year.

What Booking Data Is Actually Showing

Early January booking data already contradicts claims that demand has collapsed:

1. Week 2–Week 3 China export bookings averaged ~802K TEUs
2. That represents an 18.8% increase versus the same period in 2025
3. Week 3 reached ~827K TEUs, the highest Week 3 volume in the past seven years

“Week 2 and Week 3 China export bookings are already up nearly 19% year over year. That’s not what a demand collapse looks like.”
— Kyle Henderson

Rather than signaling exhaustion, these figures point to early-stage momentum, the phase where booking activity typically begins to build ahead of factory shutdowns.

Week 1-3 Chinese export bookings (2018-2026) 

The Critical Variable: Chinese New Year Timing

One of the most important and most overlooked factors in this year’s analysis is timing.

Chinese New Year falls on February 17, 2026 (Week 8), making it the latest CNY in seven years. Factory shutdowns are expected to span early February through mid-March, pushing the traditional disruption window later than many analysts are accounting for.

“When Chinese New Year is this late, December and early January comparisons simply aren’t apples to apples.”
— Kyle Henderson

Historically, the strongest booking surges occur two to three weeks before CNY, which in 2026 corresponds to Weeks 6–7 (February 3–14), a window for which data is not yet fully available.

This makes claims that the rush has already “finished” premature.

Weekly China export ocean bookings, 2018–2026

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

Separating Two Very Different Events

A key misconception in recent coverage is the assumption that late-December and early-January volumes represent the 2026 CNY rush. They do not.

Late December reflects holiday season shipping, a separate demand cycle. Early January Weeks 2–3 represent pre-CNY buildup, not the peak. Historically, pullbacks often appear just before the final surge especially in late-calendar CNY years.

“What the data is really showing is that the rush hasn’t arrived yet — not that it isn’t coming.”
— Ben Tracy

Asia–Europe Offers a Clearer Signal Than China–U.S.

China–U.S. volumes remain mixed, in part due to tariff uncertainty and inventory normalization. But the Asia–Europe trade lane shows a more classic pre-CNY pattern.Bookings on Asia–Europe have already moved above 2025 levels and are approaching 2024 volumes, consistent with early seasonal acceleration.

“If you want a clearer signal of Chinese New Year dynamics right now, Asia–Europe is telling that story more clearly than China–U.S.”
— Kyle Henderson

For shippers and carriers alike, this lane may provide the earliest confirmation of how the broader CNY cycle will unfold.

Weekly Asia -> Europe ocean bookings, 2018–2026

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

What’s Really Being Conflated

The prevailing “weak pre-CNY rush” narrative blends three distinct issues:

1. Red Sea and Suez routing uncertainty, distorting transit times and service reliability
2. Exceptionally late Chinese New Year timing, shifting seasonal patterns later into Q1
3. Some genuine but modest trade softness, visible in select segments

“Those are real factors — but they’re not the same thing, and they shouldn’t be interpreted as a demand collapse.”
— Kyle Henderson

Based on booking trends, actual demand softness likely explains only 10–20% of the perceived slowdown. The remainder reflects timing and capacity dynamics, not an absence of cargo.

What to Watch Next

The coming weeks will be decisive.

To validate or refute current narratives, the key window to monitor is Weeks 5–7 (February 3–16):

1. Volumes in the 700–900K TEU range would indicate a normal delayed rush
2. Sustained volumes below 600K TEUs would confirm genuine weakness
3. Volumes above 900K TEUs would suggest a strong surge postponed by timing

For now, the evidence points to one conclusion:

The Chinese New Year rush isn’t missing. It’s simply arriving later than the headlines assume.

Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence

Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:

1. Booking trends by country, product type, HS code, or commodity
2. Changes by country or port
3. Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider

👉 Interested in TradeView? Request access or schedule a demo directly below.