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A New Tariff Era Begins for Vietnam
Just ahead of the July 9 deadline, the U.S. and Vietnam struck a deal that rewrites the tariff landscape for one of America’s top sourcing partners. While the agreement avoids the steepest penalties originally proposed earlier this year, it still introduces major new costs on Vietnamese exports and even harsher penalties on transshipped goods. The booking data response was immediate. Vietnam-to-U.S. container volumes surged in recent weeks, rising more than 40 percent year over year by late June as shippers raced to get ahead of the changes.
This blog unpacks the key provisions of the agreement, the sectors most affected, and what comes next for importers relying on Vietnamese manufacturing.
US–Vietnam Tariff Update: A Deal With Conditions
Under the new terms:
- A 20% tariff now applies to direct Vietnamese exports to the U.S. (up from 10%, but lower than the 46% originally proposed).
- A 40% tariff will apply to transshipped goods, targeting Chinese products funneled through Vietnam.
- In exchange, U.S. exports to Vietnam will receive zero-tariff access.
The stakes are particularly high for the fashion and footwear industries. Vietnam now accounts for 19% of U.S. apparel imports and 30% of footwear, both up significantly since 2018. For brands that shifted production from China to Vietnam, this moment introduces new cost pressure and heightened compliance risk. Verifying country of origin and reinforcing supplier audits will be essential moving forward.
Vietnam-to-U.S. Container Bookings Surge Ahead of Tariff Deadline
Weekly Data: Bookings Surge Ahead of Deadline
Container bookings out of Vietnam have surged sharply in 2025, particularly in the weeks leading up to the July 9 tariff implementation. After a volatile Q1, including a dramatic Week 5 dip, weekly volumes rebounded and stabilized through Q2, followed by a sharp acceleration in June.
Key takeaways from the weekly data:
- 2025 bookings are now tracking above both 2023 and 2024, with a clear lead beginning around Week 19.
- Weeks 23 to 27 show strong front-loading as shippers moved fast to beat the tariff clock.
- Week 19 bookings jumped nearly 90% week over week, one of the sharpest spikes in recent history for Vietnam exports.
Compared to flat 2023 volumes and modest 2024 gains, the surge underscores how quickly trade flows can respond to regulatory certainty and cost pressure.
Weekly Heatmap: The Full Story
This trend becomes even clearer in the week-by-week TEU heatmap. After starting 2025 down more than 50% YoY, Vietnam bookings reversed course dramatically. From Week 7 through Week 13, triple-digit YoY growth became the norm, with momentum building into the final weeks of June.
The most striking acceleration came between Weeks 19 and 23, where shippers clearly moved to front-load shipments before the new tariffs took effect. By Week 23, bookings were up 42 percent year over year and growing steadily. This data not only confirms the immediate impact of the July 9 tariff deadline but also reveals how sharply trade volume can respond when policy clarity arrives. For compliance, procurement, and logistics teams, these swings highlight the importance of real-time data and forward-looking insights in supply chain planning.
Daily Vietnam-to-U.S. Container Bookings with 7-Day Average
Daily View: Front-Loading Into June
To provide an even closer look at how shippers reacted in the final days leading up to the July 9 tariff enforcement, we added daily booking data with a 7-day rolling average. After peaking above 8,800 TEUs per day in mid-June, booking activity began to taper slightly in the final week of the month, stabilizing around 7,300 TEUs. July has shown a gradual softening, with the 7-day average dipping to 6,500 TEUs by July 8.
This daily view highlights how some shippers pulled volume forward into June, while others continued booking at elevated levels even as the tariff deadline approached. These short-term movements are often the earliest signal of sourcing shifts or urgency from high-volume importers.
Product-Level Trends: Apparel and Footwear Imports Under Pressure
To better understand how tariff changes are playing out at the product level, we analyzed container volumes for three of Vietnam’s top U.S. exports: knitted apparel (HS 61), woven apparel (HS 62), and footwear (HS 64). The data shows a clear pattern. All three categories saw meaningful increases in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024. Knitted apparel volumes were up an average of over 50% year over year, with some weeks more than doubling. Woven apparel bookings increased by 21% on average, rebounding quickly after a soft start. Footwear shipments were more mixed, with some volatility week to week, but still averaged nearly 9% higher than the same period in 2024. Together, these trends suggest that importers across fashion and retail categories were not only front-loading to beat tariffs but may also be leaning into Vietnam sourcing more heavily despite the cost increases.
Knitted Apparel Weekly Imports from Vietnam: 2024 vs. 2025 (HS Code 61)
Woven Apparel Weekly Imports from Vietnam: 2024 vs. 2025 (HS Code 62)
Footwear Weekly Imports from Vietnam: 2024 vs. 2025 (HS Code 64)
We will continue monitoring Vietnam-to-U.S. booking trends in the weeks ahead as the new tariff agreement takes effect. This tracker will be updated regularly to reflect how sourcing patterns evolve in response to the shifting cost landscape and compliance risks. For live booking data, company-level shipment views, and early trend detection, you can access this dataset through Vizion’s TradeView platform. To learn more or request a demo, reach out to our team.
Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence
Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:
- Booking trends by country, product type, HS code, or commodity
- Changes by country or port
- Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider
Want a demo? Schedule time with our team to explore how TradeView helps you anticipate disruption and stay competitive.
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