In a major realignment of trade between the U.S. and Japan, a new agreement has been struck that imposes a 15% baseline tariff on Japanese imports while unlocking a $550 billion investment package and expanded market access for American exports.

For supply chain leaders, the question isn't whether trade will shift, it's how fast and in which direction. Near-real-time data from container bookings reveals early signs of adaptation, disruption, and opportunity. Using Vizion’s TradeView dataset, we explore how container volumes, both eastbound and westbound, are adjusting across time, product categories, and booking behaviors. This analysis is backed by Vizion's TradeView platform and Dun & Bradstreet Shipping Insights.

Want access to TradeView? Schedule time with an expert.

Container flows from Japan signal a market adjusting to tariff shock

Japan-to-U.S. container volumes have shown sharp fluctuations throughout the first half of 2025, with several standout weeks both above and below historical norms. By Week 27, volumes surged to 8,260 TEUs, marking one of the strongest weeks in recent years and exceeding both 2023 and 2024 seasonal baselines.

Booking volatility shows Japanese exporters racing to time shipments around policy

Week-over-week and year-over-year changes show how unstable booking behavior became throughout Q2:

1. Week 2: +6,589% WoW
2. Week 24: +68.5% YoY
3. Week 25: –40.5% WoW

The irregular cadence points to highly reactive behavior, where exporters likely held and released cargo in direct response to policy clarity, rate timing, or pricing volatility.

Exporters shift to burst behavior as uncertainty lingers day to day

Daily booking data from May through July reveals a pattern of sharp, concentrated shipping activity.

1. Peaks exceeded 2,500 TEUs on select weekdays, often following several days of minimal movement
2. The 7-day moving average climbed above 1,300 TEUs in both mid-June and early July
3. Booking activity suggests shippers are timing volumes around tariff windows and rate clarity

Rather than shipping at a steady cadence, exporters appear to be concentrating bookings in short bursts, likely aligning with contract timing, vessel availability, or cost optimization strategies.

Auto exports tumble midyear as new tariffs weigh on volume

Vehicles and automotive parts (HS Code 87) have been the most visibly impacted category.

1. Early 2025 saw major rebound weeks as shippers rushed to move inventory
2. Weeks 21 through 25 saw steep declines of 50% or more year-over-year
3. Week 29 marked an 88% week-over-week gain

Automakers are likely adjusting output and shipment cadence in response to long-term trade outlooks.

Tech and component exports from Japan recover quickly despite tariff pressure

HS Code 85 covers electrical machinery and consumer electronics, a top export category for Japan.

1. Week 16 bookings rose 160% year-over-year
2. Week 27 jumped 254% week-over-week
3. Volumes remained at or above 2024 levels throughout most of Q2

The data suggests that these goods are not only resilient but possibly front-loaded ahead of potential future cost increases.

U.S. exporters find steady ground in Japanese market under new deal

While Japanese exports became volatile, U.S. exports to Japan remained consistent. Weekly TEU volumes from the U.S. to Japan have tracked slightly ahead of 2023 and 2024, with several weeks exceeding 7,000 TEUs.

1. Weeks 9 through 14 saw sustained growth, pointing to improved access or stronger demand
2. Booking behavior remained stable week to week, signaling exporter confidence
3. American agricultural and industrial exports are likely benefiting from lower trade friction

Despite expanded access, U.S. rice exports to Japan remain stalled

Rice and cereal grains under HS Code 10 have long been subject to strict quotas and limited access in the Japanese market. One of the key promises in the new agreement was improved access for American agricultural products like rice.

1. While container counts may be modest, each shipment typically carries high-value, high-density cargo
2. 2024 saw consistent booking activity, including a notable spike above 240 TEUs in Week 19
3. 2025 volumes have been steady with shipments continuing despite fewer total bookings

If trade access expands as expected, this category has potential to grow sharply in Q3 and Q4, both in volume and value.

How Other Trade Lanes Are Reacting

Japan isn’t the only U.S. trading partner experiencing policy-driven shifts. We’ve recently analyzed other booking patterns that show similar disruption patterns:

1. Vietnam–U.S. Trade: A closer look at container booking trends following early 2025 tariff negotiations, with a focus on apparel and footwear.
2. Brazil–U.S. Bookings: Weekly TEU data and product-level shifts in response to the potential 50% tariff announcement on Brazilian imports.

Each report uses Vizion TradeView data to break down volume shifts, sector risk, and where demand is flowing next.

Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence

Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:

1. Booking trends by country, product type, HS code, or commodity
2. Changes by country or port
3. Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider

Reach out for a custom data walkthrough or shipment-level demo. Request a demo now.

Share this blog on Linked-In: