The container shipping market has entered a new phase of fragmentation. Rates, blank sailings, and sourcing strategies are diverging across lanes in ways not seen since the post-pandemic reset. In the latest episode of TradeView Live, Vizion’s Ben Tracy sat down with Graham Parker, CEO & Co-Founder of ShipAngel, to break down how shippers are reacting — and what the data reveals about real demand heading into 2026.

Drawing from Vizion’s 57% global bookings coverage and the latest performance analytics, the discussion unpacked how tariff uncertainty, contract restructuring, and port congestion are reshaping the next wave of global trade behavior.

Shippers Are Restructuring Contract Strategy Around Volatility

One of the clearest themes from the conversation: Shippers are moving away from heavy annual-contract dependence toward diversified, flexible strategies.

Graham observed that before COVID, many shippers sourced 75–90% of their volume on annual agreements with just a handful of carriers. Today, they are actively spreading allocation across:

1. A mix of annual + quarterly contracts
2. NVOCC agreements with different cadences
3. A deliberate 10–15% exposure to the spot market

Why? Because spot rates have fallen below many annual contract levels — and because tariff shifts, capacity swings, and routing disruptions have made commitment riskier.

“There are very clever shippers holding cards close to the chest,” Parker noted. “When conditions align — tariffs, rates, capacity — they can execute volume quickly.”

For shippers with the right mix of contract types, Q4 offered opportunities to unlock significantly lower landed costs than what annual contracts alone would allow.

A Two-Tier Global Supply Chain Is Emerging

Vizion’s latest performance analysis, shared during the episode, shows a widening gap between premium and economy service reliability:

Blank sailings & capacity discipline

1. Transpacific Eastbound: Pandemic-level blank sailings in October (67 China→US, 71 US→China) collapsed to ~45 in November as carriers shifted toward year-end reliability.
2. Asia–Europe: Still absorbing the highest share of global blanks (35%), with 48 cancellations already announced for December as alliances manage post-CNY softness and Red Sea disruptions.
3. Transatlantic: The most stable lane globally — just 15–20 blanks across 90 days due to the temporary U.S.–EU tariff pause.

Transshipment dwell times

Performance data from Vizion shows a stark split in port efficiency:

1. Singapore: 7–8+ days of total transshipment dwell
2. Ningbo: Surged past 10 days
3. Other major hubs: Holding at a still-elevated 5–7 days

Routing choice, not just rate, is now a primary driver of total landed time.

“If you're transshipping via Singapore right now, you're looking at a week of additional dwell. That’s significant,” Parker said.

This structural gap between reliable premium loops and highly variable economy services is creating a two-tier supply chain for 2026 planning.

U.S. Imports: A Sharp Retraction Driven by Tariff Uncertainty and Inventory Overhang

U.S. import bookings remain well below 2024 levels, especially on the Transpacific, with China→U.S. volumes nearly 30% lower year-over-year.

Drivers discussed during the episode include:

1. Lingering inventory overhang from Q1/Q2 front-loading
2. Tariff instability through April–October
3. The 41-day U.S. government shutdown and its impact on consumer confidence
4. A later Lunar New Year in 2026 delaying seasonal demand
5. Shippers holding volume back until tariff policy clears

While Vizion’s bookings-based arrival forecasts show the full extent of this slowdown, we’ve moved that analysis to a standalone post as requested.

👉 For arrival forecasts and a detailed outlook, read the forecast briefing here.

China → U.S. Bookings: A Cautious Pause Despite the Truce

Despite the one-year USTR–China tariff truce announced in late October, booking behavior hasn’t yet shown a rebound. Instead, China→U.S. weekly bookings are tracking almost exactly with “typical seasonality” (the 2023 pattern) — but at materially lower overall levels.

Even with:

1. Reduced tariff threats
2. Lower spot rates
3. Carriers restoring some capacity

Shippers remain cautious, especially those with exposure to 37% effective tariff burdens.

U.S. Exports to China: A Mild Rebound, Still Far Below 2023 and 2024

Exports tell a similar story.

U.S. export bookings to China have risen modestly since Week 43, returning to ~14–15K TEUs per week. But this remains roughly half the volumes seen in the fall of 2023 and 2024.

According to Parker, it’s not freight cost, which is historically low, that’s holding exports back. Instead, two sectors are driving the decline:

1. Recyclables: China is sourcing more from Mexico instead of the U.S.
2. Agriculture: Volatility in soybean demand and pricing continues to ripple through supply chains.

Despite the modest recovery, exporters are still far from pre-tariff and pre-slowdown levels.

Soybeans: The Early Indicator to Watch

One of the most important real-time signals in the data is the shift in China’s soybean sourcing.

Key takeaways from the episode:

1. After the April tariff announcement (Week 12), U.S. soybean exports fell sharply, while Brazil surged.
2. By Week 26, Brazil was consistently outpacing the U.S. in TEUs shipped to China.
3. In the last two weeks, U.S. volumes have slightly overtaken Brazil — a small but notable shift.
4. Overall soybean imports into China remain far below 2023/2024 levels, suggesting demand pressure as well as sourcing strategy changes.

This is one of the clearest barometers of the new U.S.–China trade dynamic — and one Vizion will be monitoring closely.

What This Means for Global Trade Heading Into 2026

Across rates, capacity, and sourcing, several structural patterns are forming:

1. Contract diversification is here to stay

Quarterly cycles + spot exposure = strategic advantage when volatility spikes.

2. Two-tier reliability will shape routing decisions

Premium loops may command higher prices but protect against week-long delays.

3. China trade flows remain fragile

Shippers are waiting for policy clarity before committing to volume.

4. Agriculture and recyclables remain under pressure

Even with historically low export rates.

5. Bookings data is the earliest indicator of recovery

Especially for sectors like soybeans, chemicals, and machinery.

“The value of this data is knowing not just what happened a month ago — but what happened last week,” Parker said.

Get Ahead with Real-Time Trade Intelligence

TradeView gives supply chain teams a forward-looking view of:

1. Booking trends by lane, product, HS code, or company
2. Supplier and LSP network behavior
3. Transshipment performance and blank sailing patterns
4. Early signals of demand surges or disruptions
   
   

👉 Interested in TradeView? Request access or schedule a demo here.

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