Headlines are currently buzzing about a "goods recession" hitting US ports. A recent report from Bloomberg highlights this developing trend, noting that major ports are facing a significant lull amid tariff concerns and a quieter holiday season.

At Vizion, we are seeing this confirmed in our data. Our latest predictive modeling shows that the slowdown is not just a general feeling. It is a quantifiable reality for the final weeks of 2025.

The December Forecast

Our model, which typically operates within a 5% margin of error, indicates a steep slide in TEU volumes to close out the year. When we compare this upcoming December to the same period last year, the drop is stark.

1. 2024 Total Arrivals (Dec): 2,629,412 TEUs
2. 2025 Forecasted Arrivals (Dec): 2,193,265 TEUs

That represents a volume loss of over 430,000 TEUs—a ~16.6% year-over-year decline.

Here is the weekly breakdown of how December 2025 is shaping up:

[Data Source: Vizion 2025 TEU Forecast]

The trajectory is distinct. We are seeing a steady deceleration as the month progresses. Volume drops from over 644,000 TEUs in the first week to just over 432,000 by the end of the month.

Why the Drop? 

This connects directly to the broader trends we explored in our recent US Container Imports 2025 Decline Analysis.

In our recent TradeView Live webinar, industry leaders discussed the drivers behind this double-digit drop. Vizion's VP of Strategic Business Development highlighted the severity of the shift compared to previous expectations:

"We're at just over sixteen and a half percent year over year drop... This is pretty significant... most of this is going to be affecting West Coast ports."

The CEO of Ship Angel weighed in on the root cause, noting that this is largely a "hangover" from the aggressive front-loading we saw back in April:

"The drop off here is very dramatic... it shows that importers just do not have the confidence to kind of hold stock." 

The Hidden Insight: Planned vs. Predicted

A closer look at the data reveals exactly how this drop is happening. In our forecast, "Planned" arrivals (booked/scheduled freight) remain relatively stable throughout the month. The steep decline comes entirely from the Predicted arrivals. This is the volume that typically fills the gap through spot bookings or late activity.

1. Week 1: We predict ~400,000 TEUs in additional volume.
2. Week 4: That prediction collapses to just ~174,000 TEUs.

This suggests that while long-term contracts are moving, the opportunistic freight that usually pads the numbers is vanishing as we approach 2026.

The Bottom Line

As the Bloomberg report suggests, we are finishing the year in a recessionary environment for goods. The traditional holiday scramble has been replaced by a leaner, quieter operational mode. For logistics leaders, this data provides a clear signal. The focus for early 2026 will likely need to shift from managing overflow to strategically navigating a period of lower demand.

Navigate Trade Volatility with Enhanced Visibility

In an era of unprecedented import volatility, supply chain leaders need real-time visibility into container movements and trade patterns.

VIZION’s comprehensive container tracking platform provides the data intelligence required to navigate the evolving trade environment. Our solutions enable proactive decision-making through:

1. Real-time container tracking across all major carriers
2. Predictive analytics for arrival planning and capacity management
3. Trade lane visibility for route optimization
4. Exception management for proactive issue resolution
5. API integration for seamless data flow into existing systems

Contact our team today to learn how VIZION can help your organization adapt to the new dynamics of global trade.

For more insights on supply chain technology and trade analytics, visit vizionapi.com

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