As global trade remains in flux, recent booking data reveals shifting momentum in U.S. container exports. While much of the recent attention has focused on import declines tied to tariff-related uncertainty (see our latest bookings tracker) exports tell a more complex story. Below, we break down US export bookings and US to China bookings and what it may signal for exporters in the second half of 2025.

US Export Bookings

This chart displays weekly U.S. export container booking volumes measured in TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), alongside both week-over-week (WoW) and year-over-year (YoY) percentage changes.

Notice: Update to Real-Time Data Access
To ensure responsible use of our high-quality, real-time ocean freight data, Vizion will now publish booking and trend updates with a two-week delay. If your business needs immediate visibility into booking patterns, port activity, or trade shifts, we are happy to walk you through real-time insights. Just schedule a call with our team here or below.

Export Booking Volumes Show Continued Swings

U.S. export container bookings have seen considerable week-to-week variability throughout 2025, and that trend has only intensified in recent months. The week of July 7 marked the sharpest single-week jump of the year so far, with bookings surging 26.9% to over 172,000 TEUs. But that momentum quickly reversed: volumes dropped 8.5% by July 21, settling at 164,266 TEUs. Earlier in the summer, similar swings were observed. Bookings fell 17.4% during the final week of June, only to rebound 21.0% in early July. These fluctuations reflect a market still adjusting to ongoing tariff developments and shifting global demand for American exports.

Year-over-Year Growth Trends Hold Steady

Despite the short-term volatility, year-over-year (YoY) trends remain relatively encouraging. July 14 volumes were up 9.9% over 2024 levels, while most of the past two months have seen consistent YoY growth in the 4–10% range. Still, exporters are not immune to downward pressure. The week of June 9 posted a notable YoY drop of 11.1%, one of the sharpest declines of the year, likely tied to front-loading activity in May and broader seasonal shifts.

US to China Bookings

This chart displays weekly container booking volumes from the United States to China, measured in TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), alongside both week-over-week (WoW) and year-over-year (YoY) percentage changes.

Notice: Update to Real-Time Data Access
To ensure responsible use of our high-quality, real-time ocean freight data, Vizion will now publish booking and trend updates with a two-week delay. If your business needs immediate visibility into booking patterns, port activity, or trade shifts, we are happy to walk you through real-time insights. Just schedule a call with our team here or below.

U.S. to China Exports Show No Recovery as Year-Over-Year Declines Persist

U.S. container exports to China showed modest improvement in July, but volumes remain well below typical levels. The week of July 21 saw bookings reach 9,993 TEUs, a 20% increase from the prior week, but still 41.9% lower than the same time last year. While July brought three consecutive weeks of growth, volumes have not surpassed 10,000 TEUs since early June. Earlier in the year, bookings dropped off sharply. Between mid-March and late April, volumes fell from more than 11,000 TEUs to just 3,431 TEUs, a decline of over 70 percent in less than six weeks. The most severe drop came the week of April 14, when bookings fell 48% week over week and 81% year over year.

Year-over-Year Declines Indicate Structural Strain

Every week in 2025 has recorded a negative year-over-year comparison for U.S. container exports to China. Even during brief rebounds in early May and late June, year-over-year declines stayed steep, ranging from -31% to nearly -81%. This pattern points to long-term pressure on the lane, with factors like retaliatory tariffs, demand shifts, and supplier diversification likely contributing to the sustained downturn. The short-lived recovery in May, which peaked at over 15,600 TEUs the week of May 19, quickly gave way to another slump. This volatility suggests that exporters remain cautious and that the lane is highly sensitive to policy changes and demand fluctuations.

What’s Driving the Shifts?

Several macro factors are likely contributing to the ongoing booking volatility in 2025. Tariff changes introduced in March and April may have prompted cautious behavior or front-loading ahead of new regulations. Shifting demand from global buyers — particularly in China — is also influencing volumes, especially for key U.S. exports such as agricultural goods, machinery, and energy products. Carrier capacity adjustments and rate fluctuations continue to shape how and when exporters secure space, adding another layer of uncertainty during what is typically a high-volume season.

While volumes have recovered slightly since April, year-over-year declines remain steep and consistent, suggesting deeper structural challenges in the U.S.–China trade lane. These shifts likely reflect more than just temporary disruption. Exporters who stay agile, monitor trade policy developments closely, and adapt booking strategies in real time will be better positioned to navigate continued volatility in the months ahead.

Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence

Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:

1. Booking trends by product type, HS code, or commodity
2. Changes by country or port
3. Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider

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Want a walkthrough? Schedule time with our team to explore how TradeView helps you anticipate disruption and stay competitive.

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