China has signaled that new purchases of U.S. soybeans depend on the removal of tariffs, a position reported by Reuters. The effect of that policy is already clear in the data: weekly U.S. soybean bookings to China in 2025 are down more than 80 percent compared with last year. Using Vizion’s trade flow data alongside official export statistics, it is evident that a once-critical trade lane has slowed to a fraction of its former volume, with China sourcing instead from Brazil and Argentina. This shift highlights how quickly trade policy can reshape commodity flows and raise new risks for U.S. exporters.

U.S. soybean shipments to China collapse in 2025 after years of steady flow

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

Weekly booking data illustrates this shift. In 2023, shipments peaked at more than 7,000 TEUs during harvest season, with volumes consistently flowing throughout the year. In 2024, activity softened but still totaled over 1.3 million TEUs. In 2025, the collapse is unmistakable. By Week 38, totals had barely reached 20,000 TEUs, compared with more than 80,000 at the same point last year. Even the largest exporters have felt the impact. The Delong Co Inc, the leading shipper of U.S. soybeans to China, moved just over 3,200 TEUs in 2025, down from more than 9,000 the year before. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, another major agribusiness, shipped fewer than 1,000 TEUs this year compared with nearly 2,850 in 2024. The data points to a collapse in seasonal buying behavior that has defined this lane for decades.

The lack of U.S. soybean shipments to China in 2025 cannot be separated from the tariff environment. The effective duty on American soybeans is now estimated at more than 30% once retaliatory tariffs, value-added taxes, and other levies are included (Agriculture.com). This cost gap makes U.S. soybeans far less competitive against Brazilian and Argentine supplies. As Reuters noted, China has tied new purchases to the removal of these tariffs, making the issue as much about trade policy as it is about commodity demand.

Brazil and Argentina soybean bookings surge as China shifts purchases in 2025

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

The decline in U.S. soybean bookings to China has not left a vacuum. South American suppliers, particularly Brazil and Argentina, have stepped in to fill the gap. In 2024, shipments from these origins were almost nonexistent. By contrast, in 2025 volumes began accelerating in the spring, climbing above 1,200 TEUs per week by late July and remaining elevated through the summer.

While U.S. exporters have struggled, South America has been the clear beneficiary. In 2024, shipments from Brazil and Argentina were almost nonexistent. By contrast, in 2025 volumes began accelerating in the spring, climbing above 1,200 TEUs per week by late July and remaining elevated through the summer. By Week 38, Brazil and Argentina had shipped more than 10,000 TEUs of soybeans to China, narrowing the gap with U.S. volumes in a way not seen before.

Argentina’s government temporarily suspended export taxes on soybeans earlier this year, triggering a rush of sales to China. Chinese buyers booked at least ten cargoes from Argentina following the announcement. Brazil, meanwhile, is on pace to set new export records, with China as the primary destination. Together, these moves have helped offset the lack of U.S. supply while reinforcing China’s ability to diversify its sourcing.

Looking Ahead

The trajectory of U.S. soybean exports to China will depend on more than just this year’s harvest. Tariff negotiations, South American export policies, and shifts in global demand will continue to shape where and how soybeans move. The data makes one thing clear: trade flows can change quickly, and exporters cannot rely on historical patterns alone.

For agricultural producers, traders, and logistics teams, staying ahead of these shifts requires timely and transparent data. With Vizion’s TradeView and container tracking tools, stakeholders can monitor how volumes move across trade lanes, spot substitution patterns in real time, and anticipate where supply chains may tighten or open up. The collapse of U.S. soybean shipments to China in 2025 is more than a headline — it is a case study in why global trade visibility matters. Having the ability to track cargo flows and analyze booking trends is essential for navigating policy-driven disruptions and positioning for what comes next.

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