With the U.S.–China tariff hike postponed 90 days to November 10, 2025, importers have a brief window under the current regime: 10% “reciprocal” tariffs and 20% “fentanyl” tariffs on most Chinese goods, plus sectoral add-ons, while China keeps a 10% tariff on U.S. imports. Without this pause, duties would have jumped to 145% on U.S. imports from China and 125% on China’s retaliation, so short-term planning for the holiday build is back on the table and near-term pull-forward is likely. In this deep dive, we analyze how booking behavior is adjusting on both China to U.S. and U.S. to China lanes, with three-year trendlines, year-over-year and week-over-week changes, daily patterns since May, and product categories to watch, so operators can make sourcing, pricing, and inventory decisions with clearer signal before the November deadline.

China to U.S. bookings in 2025 rebound sharply after slow start

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

China-to-U.S. container bookings have followed a familiar seasonal arc over the past three years, but 2025 stands out for its slower start and sharper mid-year rebound. Weekly volumes in early Q1 2025 lagged both 2023 and 2024, bottoming in Week 5 before climbing steadily. A significant surge began in late May, peaking in Weeks 20 and 21 at more than 220,000 TEUs, as shippers front-loaded orders ahead of potential tariff hikes. Since then, bookings have eased but remain elevated compared with early-year levels. 

China-to-U.S. bookings in 2025 have been defined by sharp, tariff-driven swings. Significant gains in Weeks 6–8 and Weeks 19–21 point to importers pulling forward orders in response to tariff headlines, with Week 20 marking the largest spike at 156% WoW and 14% YoY. Outside of these surges, most weeks have trended below 2024 levels, reflecting a more cautious pace of ordering even as mid-year rebounds temporarily lifted volumes.

Daily China to U.S. bookings surged in mid-May before steady summer decline

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see daily TEU volume

Daily bookings from China to the U.S. surged sharply in mid-May, with volumes topping 49,000 TEUs on May 16 as importers accelerated orders ahead of anticipated tariff increases. The 7-day average climbed above 34,000 TEUs by late May before beginning a gradual decline through June and July. Activity has since leveled off in the 16,000–20,000 TEU range in early August, signaling a return to a steadier pace but still reflecting caution as the November tariff deadline approaches. The pattern suggests importers front-loaded significant volumes early in the summer to secure lower landed costs, followed by a pullback as immediate tariff risk receded.

U.S. to China bookings in 2025 remain far below previous years

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see weekly TEU volumes for each year

U.S.-to-China container bookings have trended significantly lower in 2025 compared with 2023 and 2024, reflecting the weight of ongoing reciprocal tariffs and reduced export demand. Weekly volumes started the year in the 14,000–19,000 TEU range before sliding sharply in March and April, with multiple weeks under 4,000 TEUs. A short-lived rebound in late May and June lifted volumes above 11,000 TEUs in Weeks 20 and 21, but activity has since settled back into the single-digit thousands. The persistent gap compared with prior years underscores the impact of trade policy headwinds on U.S. exporters to China, even as import flows from China have experienced more pronounced mid-year surges.

U.S.-to-China bookings in 2025 have remained well below 2024 levels for most of the year, with YoY declines frequently exceeding 40% and in some weeks topping 80%. The most significant gains occurred in Week 20, when volumes jumped 213% WoW as exporters responded to tariff-related signals, and in Week 21 with a 33% WoW increase. These rebounds, however, were short-lived, as volumes quickly retreated in subsequent weeks. Overall, the market shows a pattern of sporadic surges tied to tariff news, but the baseline remains sharply lower than last year, highlighting persistent demand challenges for U.S. exporters to China.

Daily U.S. to China bookings hit brief mid-May high before losing momentum

*Interactive: Scroll or hover to see daily TEU volume

Daily bookings from the U.S. to China climbed sharply in mid-May, reaching a single-day high of more than 5,200 TEUs on May 20 as exporters moved quickly ahead of potential tariff escalations. The 7-day average rose above 2,200 TEUs during this period, but volumes dropped off by early June and have since fluctuated between 1,300–1,700 TEUs. Brief late-July bursts brought the average slightly higher, though activity remains far below the mid-May surge. The trend reflects a market where short-lived reactions to tariff headlines are followed by rapid reversion to lower, more cautious export levels.

Final thoughts

With the U.S.–China tariff hike now delayed until November 10, importers and exporters have a short but valuable planning window under the current tariff structure. The trends in both lanes show how closely the market is tracking policy signals, with surges timed to tariff headlines and quieter periods marked by caution. Whether volumes hold steady or spike again ahead of the new deadline will depend on the pace of holiday demand and the tone of trade negotiations in the coming weeks.

For a closer look at specific product categories, comparisons with other key trade partners, or tailored market insights, reach out to our team — we can help you translate shifting booking patterns into actionable sourcing and pricing strategies.

Get Ahead with Early Trade Intelligence

Vizion’s TradeView platform gives you live visibility into:

1. Booking trends by country, product type, HS code, or commodity
2. Changes by country or port
3. Shipment behavior by consignee, shipper, and logistics provider

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